This New Flu May Be Californian

Speculation grows that the Mexican Swine Flu may not be Mexican after all. From the Wall Street Journal:

In California, Cases Suggest Border Origin

SACRAMENTO, Calif. -- Doctors tracking swine flu in this state are investigating a new theory: What if it didn't originate in Mexico but instead had been floating around the border region for months?

Growing evidence in California suggests that early flu cases had no apparent origin in Mexico. Many of the early California victims -- including the first two cases -- say they hadn't traveled to Mexico and had no contact with pigs. Some may have fallen ill before the first Mexicans did.

Those cases contradict the conventional understanding of how the strain originated. They could also offer important clues about the future trajectory of the disease. Other cases here and in other states, as well as abroad, have clear links with Mexico.

But the outbreak in California may have a separate origin. "This virus has been circulating around in the population for some time," said Gilberto Chavez, an epidemiologist with the California Department of Public Health. Its similar symptoms to a standard flu, he said, meant that "any cases that might have been around were probably seen, treated and diagnosed as regular flu."

The more I read, the less convinced I am that health officials, whether world or American, are going to be able to contain this thing. While I am generally a "tight border" believer, I don't think closing the border would have much of an impact, one way or the other, on the spread of this disease other than to prevent mass refugee movement if it gets worse in Mexico. Tightening the border would be the historically prudent response of this or any other nation, so I would expect the Obama administration to ignore it completely. (To be fair, I don't think the Bush administration would have done much either.)

But there is another way in which Americans have traditionally met adversity: with self-interested efforts designed to protect themselves and their families. How, you might ask, to do this?

Coming, in my next post: One doctor's theory on flu prevention.