British Pandemic 'Dry Run' Was a Mess

Authorities in Great Britain did a "dry run" on a flu pandemic a couple of years ago and found out that the real thing would be disastrous.

UK financial regulators have rehearsed how a pandemic like the swine flu, now spreading from Mexico, will affect Britain. In the most detailed disaster planning exercise held anywhere in the world, more than 70 City firms, including HSBC and Norwich Union, secretly tested how the crisis would unfold over five months.

The exercise, which began in November 2006, was masterminded by the Bank of England, the Financial Services Authority and the Treasury – the three authorities that monitor financial stability. It was condensed into six weeks, with firms sent updates as the crisis developed.

Some of the results included:

... government spending budgets were adequate, but, before long, hospitals ran out of masks and hand gel, and the Department of Health warned it would take four to six months to produce a vaccine. Hospitals canceled all except urgent operations. [And this differs from ordinary procedure in what way? - DTO]

But as the crisis deepened, Britain's economic structure collapsed. There were queues at garages as motorists filled cars and petrol cans. Panic buying at supermarkets was followed by stores stocking only basic food and clothing, while smaller shops and restaurants closed, creating ghost towns. Food piled up on docksides but could not be distributed. Sickness and absenteeism led to bank branches closing and empty cash machines after the public hoarded banknotes. Supermarkets' cashback replaced banks until they ended that service.

As the death toll reached 50,000, the prime minister called on people to show their famed bulldog spirit but the country was grinding to a halt. The three authorities warned: "The UK economy could face financial meltdown unless the situation improves soon." Rather than improve, businesses closed due to lack of staff, suppliers or customers.

Besides the Tube closures, London's commuter railways were suspended, and intercity trains, all packed, were reduced to one an hour, stopping only at major towns. Roads became jammed – but London refused to lift its congestion charge. Airlines cancelled hundreds of flights as demand plummeted. [SNIP]

By the time the exercise ended, the flu had affected 500 million people worldwide and killed nine million [in Britain]. Problems continued: insolvencies soared and firms' credit ratings were downgraded in the following months.

The reporter put a happy face on the story at the end, saying:

But participants claim the exercise prepared them for a crisis like today's pandemic.

Call me skeptical, but I don't think you can "war game" these types of situations with computers, think tanks and committees. Like elections and football games, you have to play the real thing to find out how people will react. The recent book, "The Survivor's Club," tends to debunk the myth that most people exhibit their worst characteristics in a crisis. Some will, many won't.

My guess is that the upshot of this exercise is that the "lesson" will be to give the government greater control over all aspects of British life which, I predict, will bring about much of the chaos they seek to avert when, and if, they real thing comes along.

Cutting Joe Biden Some Slack

Yes, Vice President Joe Biden is a clown.

Yes, it is great fun laughing at Joe Biden's gaffes, especially when he contradicts his boss.

But maybe we should be paying closer attention to what he's actually saying. No, seriously!

Today the vice president said he wouldn't fly in commercial aircraft or ride in subways because of the greater potential to contract the flu, and that's what he would recommend to this family.

"That's me," he said.

Quite simply put, he is speaking for himself. He isn't acting as a mouthpiece for Homeland Security, HHS, or even the White House, just noodling the idea that common sense says you ought not to put yourself in harm's way if there are alternatives and no overriding reasons otherwise.

It's a sad measure of how far we have fallen as a nation when everything anyone says becomes an occasion for ridicule. Now I'm not a big Biden fan -- the thought that he is but a heartbeat away from being Commander-in-Chief is much more troubling than the Mexican Swine flu -- but give the man credit for a bit of clear thinking on the "pending pandemic."

What he said about aircraft? True. Studies have shown that even in normal times flying can be hazardous to your health because of the closed air systems. If you've got 150 people on a flight, and just one has a cold, there is a good chance you will catch it. My own anecdotal experience convinces me that this is so: I don't think I've ever flown without coming down with the cold or flu shortly afterward, except for the times I've flown in practically empty jetliners, or small aircraft. I would imagine subways have the same sort of problems.

Right now the official position of the White House, et al, is that we are looking at a probable pandemic that is very serious, bears watching, should close affected schools, will necessitate quarantines, and yet ... isn't worth closing the border, no one need worry about wearing a mask, the death rate seems rather small, and not to worry because our best and brightest scientific minds are on the case.

In other words, it's deadly serious and it's no big deal. All at the same time.

That may well be true, as several epidemiologists say that is is likely that the Mexican Swine flu, while pandemic in nature, is not yet skilled at killing its hosts. It may take two or three "waves" over the next year or so for it to become so adept.

Which, to me, argues for trying to isolate it and contain it quickly. Don't allow it to find a host more condusive to its killer ambitions. Take sensible precautions now, like tightening border crossings and restricting certain types of travel, and each of us personally doing our part.

As one of our Founding Fathers said, "An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure."

Ben Franklin and Joe Biden, strange bedfellows. Who knew?

No Longer Passively Surveilling on the Border

Homeland (In)Security Chief Napolitano says she's retracting her statement to Congress that border officials are using "passive surveillance" to deal with the Mexican Swine flu.

I guess that sounds too much like "sitting on our collective ass."

Now border officials are asking tough questions, she says, like "are you feeling well?" and "where you been lately?" Apparently the answers are leading her to believe there is still no reason to close the border.

I feel so much safer.