Avian flu scenario: it could be that bad

The New York Times on Saturday will publish descriptions of life in America during a severe pandemic of avian flu, details taken from the disaster planning scenarios being studied by federal officials as they nervously watch the progress of the "bird flu" around the world.

Thus far 100 people have come down with it, 60 have died. Most have contracted the disease directly from the birds, and the birds have mostly been chickens or ducks. It will not become pandemic until the virus mutates sufficiently to allow for easy human-to-human transmission but world health authorities, including the Centers for Disease Control, say it is only a matter of time.

Thus it is only a matter of how much time and what preparations can lessen the impact. It could be years. Then again, the mutation could already be taking place.

WASHINGTON, Oct. 7 - A plan developed by the Bush administration to deal with any possible outbreak of pandemic flu shows that the United States is woefully unprepared for what could become the worst disaster in the nation's history.

A draft of the final plan, which has been years in the making and is expected to be released later this month, says that a large outbreak that began in Asia would, because of modern travel patterns, likely reach the United States within "a few months or even weeks."

If such an outbreak occurred, hospitals would become overwhelmed; riots would engulf vaccination clinics; and even power and food would be in short supply, the plan, obtained by The New York Times, says.

The 381-page plan calls for quarantine and travel restrictions but concedes that such measures "are unlikely to delay introduction of pandemic disease into the U.S. by more than a month or two."

It is just us, or does it seem like current events keep ratcheting to a higher pitch these days?