Saturday, June 06, 2009

Heads Up: Early Warning Sign of New Financial Turmoil

This may not be a good thing.
Milan (AsiaNews) – Rothschild’s Dubai office has been retained by Dubai’s Department of Finance for advice on the US $10 billion financial support fund (FSF) the emirate raised on the bond markets.

Nakheel, the property development arm of Dubai World, was the first to benefit, but is likely to be the last of its kind because funds will be handed out on the basis of two criteria: urgency and strategic importance.

In fact government-related corporations deemed essential for the long-term development of Dubai’s economy will be eligible for FSFs. They include firms involved in infrastructure, transportation (ex. the Metro and Maktoum airport projects), aviation, ports, shipping and tourism. Banking might be included and the Rothschild guidelines might be flexible with regard to real estate.

This said Rothschild is not getting directly involved but will act through commercial banks in which it has equity or has connections with, like JP Morgan and other ones. Moreover, through the same commercial banks, Rothschild has a say, and a powerful one, over the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY).
How bad could things get? A little farther down in the article, there is this:
As in the spring of 2008 when the first signs of the coming September financial storm were visible, today’s signs, albeit not front page news, might herald another major storm this fall.

But this year’s crisis could be worse than last year’s because of the multiple points of origin. In addition to the weak situation of the US Federal Reserve, whose financial commitments in support of the US banking system are equal to the total US GDP, European banks could go in tilt because of their exposure to emerging markets whilst those of Asia (especially Japan’s and China’s) could suffer because of Asian economies’ heavy reliance on now declining exports.

As for Dubai real estate values in the city-emirate have dropped by 50 per cent since before the crisis[i]; insolvencies here and across the Gulf region are rising.

At the same time two contradictory trends appear to be coming together. On the one hand, we see that “creata ex nihilo”[ii] e-money might lead to hyper-inflation; on the other, collapsing prices in real goods could lead to deflation and an economic depression worse than that of the 1930s.
When the people who have Big Oil and Big Money start having problems, little people like us sort of get lost in the repercussions and consequences.


By the way, does it both anyone besides me when a reporter talks of a group like Rothschild having a "powerful say" over one of the Federal Reserve banks? It's not new news, or anything, but it still rankles.

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Friday, June 05, 2009

Obama Depression Watch: 9.4% Out of Work

It's a lot easier to spin unemployment numbers if you massage them a little first.

Your eyebrows should be raised this morning as you get the "official" Labor Dept. report of job losses that claims "only" 345,000 jobs were lost in May.

Yet the government admits that unemployment has risen to 9.4 percent, a full half-point higher than last month.

However, the ADP National Employment Report earlier in the week -- a private survey of private employment -- found 532,000 jobs were lost in May.

There is a lot of air between the two numbers. The question then becomes: Who do you trust to tell you the truth?

Even taking the Labor Dept. report at face value, there are now 14.5 million official unemployed. This number does not take into account a vast swath of workers who have given up looking.

Naturally, the AP quotes some doofus proclaiming that the worst is over, happy days are just around the corner, blah, blah, blah, and, just in case you aren't drinking the happy juice yet, points out that this "recession" began in December 2007 and has seen the economy lose 6 million jobs.

Translation: It's that damn Bush's fault.

Nevermind that the Stimulus Bill was supposed to have immediately started kicking in on those "shovel ready" projects designed to get construction and factory workers back to work. So how is that working out?
Construction companies cut 59,000 jobs, down from 108,000 in April. Factories cut 156,000, on top of 154,000 in the previous month. Retailers cut 17,500 positions, compared with 36,500 in April. Financial activities cut 30,000, down from 45,000 in April. Even the government reduced employment -- by 7,000 -- after bulking up by 92,000 in April as it added workers for the 2010 Census.
Not so hot, huh?

Of course, the government is massaging the numbers from previous months, claiming that things weren't nearly so bad as first thought.

But still that nagging 9.4 percent unemployment rate?

The Obama Depression is here, folks.

And if they get Health Care Reform and Cap-and-Tax, it will be permanent.

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Saturday, March 21, 2009

The Federal Grizzly, Capt. Ben & the Bernacke Maneuver

It has already begun, and now it escalates.

Just as there is nothing subtle about the paw of a grizzly bear as it feels around the underside of your tent, so the paw of federal "oversight" into the tent of the free enterprise system. The grizzly may only be wanting to see if there are any cookies hidden under your backpack; he probably doesn't mean to hurt you. Yet the claws are sharp and he is not adapted to skillful maneuvering in this alien environment. The federal bureaucrat may not be aiming at you, the once happy camper who has hidden his retirement cookies in the backpack of an IRA or 401(k) plan, but their regulatory claws are sharp and they are not adapted to skillful maneuvering in this alien environment of the private sector.

First came the bailouts under the Bush administration, the suspension of free market principles in order to "save" the free market system. (This under a nominally pro-capitalist president).

Then came the stimulus bill, the Porkulus, that stimulates government spending with nearly $800 billion that this nation does not have to spend. Then within days came Son of Porkulus, the Omnibus Appropriations bill 8 percent larger than last year's bloated budget-buster, filled with 8,500 "earmarks," totalling over $405 billion. Both of these under an administration, working with a very liberal Congress, that is not a friend of the free market system, since it has done nothing but call for tighter and tighter regulations of said markets.

This week something wicked this way came, but few noticed because all the attention was instead directed to the "shocking" bonuses given management employees at AIG, an American-based insurer that got trapped in the downward spiral of mortgage-backed securities gone sour. (The company also insured many other firms that were trapped in the same derivatives bubble.)

"Look at those evil, greedy, rich bastards of AIG!" shouted members of Congress, and even the President himself, perhaps in words not quite so blunt but the meaning was crystal clear. We, the American people, should direct our anger at the trillions spent on bailouts, and stimuli, at a couple of hundred men and women who work for one firm. These evil people, who dared collect on the bonuses promised them over a year ago in their employment compensation packages for work done in 2008, represent all that is wrong with America! How dare they? Where is their shame? What are their names, and where do they live? Give us the pictures of their spouses and their children so we can threaten to turn loose the ravening hordes of outraged countrymen ...

... unless, of course, they want to play nice, do their patriotic duty, and give back the money.

Or better yet, let's pass a law and tax those bonuses back into the federal treasury. How much? How about 90 percent; we'll leave a little something for state and local governments to tax. After all, isn't that the proper place for wealth in America, back in the hands of politicians and bureaucrats where it can be spent for the greater good of all? ("I'd tax them 1,000 percent if I could," one congresswoman bravely declared in front of the cameras. Damn right, that'll show those ingrates who's boss!) Hurry, there is no time to waste! We must pass this tax legislation immediately so that the IRS can get out those notices in time to claim the money in April 2010.

All our eyes and ears were focused on our brave, patriotic elected officials working hard to protect the American people from avarice in the private sector. Only when the Obamessiah misspoke on the challenged nature of his bowling skills did we remember that there were other important issues to consider. And our March Madness brackets to fill in, of course.

So hardly anyone noticed that on Wednesday the Federal Reserve announced that it was beginning a new round of purchasing mortgage-backed securities and United States Treasury bills to the tune of $1.15 trillion. The initial purchase of T-bills is in the $300 billion range. Where is the money coming from?

Thin air.


Terence Corcoran at Canada's National Post, was not distracted:
Mr. Bernanke is sometimes known as “Helicopter Ben” because he once in an academic paper referred to the use of “helicopters” full of money to rescue an economy from deflation. In comments Wednesday to explain the Fed’s new policy of buying $300-billion in U.S. treasury bills, Mr. Bernanke noted that the Fed is now more worried about inflation being too low than about it getting too high in the future.

For the rest of the world, however, the worry is that America is at risk of becoming the fountainhead of a new inflationary outburst. The U.S. dollar is now in decline, gold is moving sharply higher, and new global currency turmoil is on the horizon.

It may not happen. A paper just published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, ... says that the Fed will have to be prepared to absorb all the excess money it has poured into the U.S. economy. It will be a technical and political challenge unlike any central bank has ever undertaken. The future of America is at stake.
Perhaps it takes someone outside the tent to see that the grizzly bear is about to do serious damage to those inside the tent. Mr. Corcoran's article, by the way, is entitled, "Is this the End of America?"

America is in grave danger. The Fed is attempting a maneuver never before tried at this stage of a financial downturn. It requires precision timing the likes of which only a competent crew on a Federation Starship can usually pull off, since it is based on a theory that you can stop an oncoming Depression with hyper-inflation, then squelch hyper-inflation by pulling back all the excess money you "created" and put into the system.

There is a technical term for such a maneuver: It is freakin' insane!

But we're committed to it. Captain Ben and his Starship Fed crew, with or without consulting those of us who are back in the tent in the woods, are already in warp drive and engaging "the enemy."

Meanwhile, according to Drudge (quoting sources in the New York Times newsroom), says Mr. Obama is about to declare a new financial regulation policy that will call for "increased oversight" of executive pay at "all banks", Wall Street firms and "other companies." Oh, goody! The grizzly is now looking for some bacon, too.

So we have to hope for two wildly optimistic outcomes now. First, that Capt. Ben successful executes the "Bernacke Maneuver" and our currency doesn't collapse like a second-hand Ferengi warp coil, and that Mr. Obama's grizzly bear is satisfied with a little bit of Wall Street bacon and doesn't come on in to the tent for the rest of our goodies, which we should've hidden in secret Swiss bank accounts years ago, but who knew?

Who knew that the American people would have dumped a bunch of cretinous, hypocritical Republicans out of Congresss two years ago for spending like drunken sailors, only to replace them with cretinous, hypocritical Democrats who have taught us that drunken sailors are pretty frugal after all?

And who'd a thunk that we'd go all "hopey/changey" and elect a man of mystery who has no legislative accomplishments, no business experience, and virtually zero abilities to think on his feet without a teleprompter keeping him from putting those same feet into his mouth, and who, for all we know, might have been born in Kenya instead of Hawaii, and might be a citizen of Indonesia; a man who was befriended by Marxists and black liberationists, and the "community organizers" of Chicago. A man who promised during his campaign to give us socialized health care, higher taxes on all types of energy, and "spread the wealth" tax policies.

When a grizzly bear is attacking my tent, I want more than a cellphone call or a text message to my congressman. I want to know that someone is nearby with a tranquillizer gun, a bullhorn, and a big bucket of raw meat with which to lure the beast away.

I don't think Mr. Obama is that guy.

I think he enjoys watching the bear.

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Tuesday, December 30, 2008

Sign of the Times: Going Out of Business

Bloomberg.com is reporting that 79,000 retail outlets of various companies will likely close their doors during the first months of 2009, adding to the woes of 148,000 store closings for all of 2008. This year's shuttered doors are the worst since the terrorist-dampened year of 2001.

The good news, the report says, is that the U.S. could stand to have fewer retail outlets anyway.

I'm not sure that fewer choices are necessarily better for consumers, but if the contraction has anything to do with people paying off their debts, re-evaluating the differences between hard needs and mere desires, and deciding to emphasize quality over quantity in what they buy, then perhaps some Americans are getting the message that leaner times are coming.

In the long run that's going make for a much stronger America.


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