Is This 'The Test'?

North Korea blows off a Hiroshima-sized atomic weapon, waking the American president from his slumber.

Of course, it's a test. But is it "The Test"?

At about the same time, Iran sails a "fleet" of armed ships -- okay, it's not a big fleet, but it's armed heavily enough to be a problem to the 20,000 vessels that navigate the vital oil artery, the Straits of Hormuz -- into international waters.

Of course, it's a test. But is it "The Test"?

The IRS reported today that tax revenues fell 36 percent in April, and that individual income tax receipts were 44 percent below last year. "Staggering," one credentialed economist declared. Oddly, over the Memorial Weekend, President Obama gave an interview in which he declared that "we are out of money" but suggested that the solution was to launch an incredibly expensive national health care system. On Tuesday the Chinese warn a top member of the U.S. Federal Reserve of their concern for the overtime runs of the printing presses here and the "monetizing of the actions of our legislature (Congress)." We are, in essence, buying our "debt" by printing more money, a tactic that has never, in all of history, worked.

We are, of course, conducting an experiment, a test. But will it be "The Test"?

Or are we testing China's patience to the breaking point?

Oil hits $63 a barrel, up from $36 at its low point a few weeks ago, and the Saudis declare that $75 to $80 a barrel is a realistic target now that the world is "recovering." Really? Is the world economy recovering, or is it the financial ability of the speculators to make derivatives bets on oil prices that has recovered?

And are they betting on armed conflict that drives the price of petroleum sky high?

Is this "The Test"?

North Korea is an ally of Iran. They have coordinated missile purchases, the transfer of nuclear power information, and who knows what else under the table. They have common goals, chief among them is the humiliation and eventual demise of the United States. This is their hyperbole, not mine. Are their current efforts coordinated? Is it but one more bluff on the world stage, or will something different happen this time?

Today the North Koreans announced that they will no longer be bound by the terms of the 1953 Armistice that ended the Korean War, and they threatened military action if anyone attempts to search their naval vessels for any reason. The likely target of any military action is South Korea, where 28,000-plus American military personnel are stationed. In response, the South Koreans moved a warship into position closer to the North and in proximity to a group of five disputed islands.

Russia, which borders the area, issued a statement that it fears any conflict on the Korean peninsula might "go nuclear." It said "the need has emerged for an appropriate package of emergency measures," whatever that means.

A few short months ago, shortly before the general election, then vice presidential candidate Joe Biden confided to a group that in the first six months of a Barack Obama administration there would be an international test of the new president's courage and resolve. "Mark my words," he said.

At that time, Mr. Biden was mocked by Republicans and chastised by Democrats for his alleged "gaffe."

At that time, I thought, "What does he know? Who has he been listening to?" I am going to repeat what I said recently: The problem with Joe Biden is not that he tells lies, but that he speaks on topics of the most inconvenient kinds and at the most inopportune times. Most of the time it is the truth, or at least the truth as Joe remembers it. (A good example is his declaration that when the stock market crashed FDR went on TV and calmed the American people. Not an intentional lie, just a bad grasp of history.)

What is so outrageous about the idea that America's enemies in the world will test a new president? Remember the incident early in the first George W. Bush term when China forced down a U.S. intelligence gathering jet? That was a test, although nothing so far-reaching as what we are seeing today. (By the way, in my opinion, Bush flunked that test.)

Bruce Kingner of the Heritage Foundation notes that North Korea's actions since the first of the year are dramatically different than in the last 15 years. The Norks, he says, "are playing a new game."

"Previous North Korean tactics were to engage in a slow buildup prior to an escalatory act in order to allow the US and its allies sufficient time to offer new diplomatic or economic inducements to buy Pyongyang back from the brink. On those occasions when North Korea carried out the act, it followed with several months of calm to allow all countries to become accustomed to the new elevated status quo prior to initiating the next lengthy provocation process."

Klingner believes they are trying to earn international recognition as a member of the nuclear club.

I hope it is as simple as that, but I fear that Kim Jong-Il and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will see the results of their provocations, thus far, are but shrill rhetoric from the Obama administration, and little more. There's a lot of talk about "stern consequences" and "international pressure" but not a lot of teeth. Hand-wringing at the United Nations. Protests from China and Russia and a renewed call for a restart of the six-nation talks, which North Korea has rejected.

Perhaps it's another play for international aid. But it could be far more serious than that, and I have little confidence that the guys in charge will know how to react. Our options as a nation are not as wide open as they once were, but they are not insignificant either, depending upon the will of those who wield control.

Do they know this?

Remember the old bumper sticker, "One nuclear bomb can ruin your entire day"?

One North Korean nuke, detonated in South Korea, would be enough by itself to completely freak out the world economy for several weeks. Done in conjunction with a blockade of the Straits of Hormuz by Iranian navy boats, it could send a jolt through the American economy that might well plunge us into gasoline rationing and food shortages.

Understand, I'm not saying any of these things will happen. I'm just saying that these things are possible, and I worry that the American people are so distracted right now by domestic concerns that they may pass this off as just another bunch of idiots making a lot of noise.

What is one's best course of action? Be mentally prepared for any eventuality and, as calmly and quietly as you see fit, physically be prepared. Expect the worst, hope for the best, and pray that we not be put to The Test.